While Xi runs rings around Trump, China bears down on Taiwan

Sheer ignorance, fed by malign intent, historical prejudice and mutual misunderstanding, is often the crucial spark that ignites simmering international conflicts.

- Simon Tisdall

If Adolf Hitler, remarkably ignorant of the US, had grasped the true extent of American industrial might, would he still have fatefully declared war on Washington in 1941?

When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979, it evidently had no idea what it was getting into. Humiliating defeat contributed greatly to its subsequent disintegration. In 1990, Iraq’s Saddam Hussein attacked Kuwait, convinced he had a green light from the White House. In all these cases, stupidity produced disastrous misjudgments that proved fatal.

China’s fractious relations with the western democracies suffer from similarly hazardous blind spots. The recent publication in state media of “explainer” articles, apparently intended to provide reassurance about Taiwan’s future under Chinese rule, exemplified this lack of mutual knowledge, to almost comical effect.

When (not if) China takes charge, vetted “patriots” will govern Taiwan in a Beijing-approved regime modelled on Hong Kong, the articles said. Say again? Viewed from Taipei and the west, Hong Kong is a cautionary tale of nightmarish repression, brutal security laws, censorship - and broken Chinese promises dating back to the 1997 handover from Britain.