Iran's mass deportation of Afghans: Is a regional meltdown next?

In July 2025, Taliban spokesperson for Migrants, Issue Ahmadullah Wasiq, announced that more than 600,000 Afghan nationals had returned from Iran to Afghanistan in just one month.

- DR. ANCHITA BORTHAKUR

This staggering figure underscores the Iranian government's increasingly hardline stance on the so-called undocumented migrants—particularly Afghans, who for years have made up the largest refugee population in the country.

Iran's long-standing role as a refuge for Afghan migrants is undergoing a stark and historic reversal in recent years. Once seen as a sanctuary rooted in religious solidarity and regional brotherhood, Tehran is now expelling Afghan refugees on a scale not seen in decades. This dramatic shift is driven by a mix of economic hardship, growing anti-immigration sentiment within Iranian society, national security concerns, and evolving geopolitical priorities. However, at present, the crisis reaches far beyond the borders of Iran and Afghanistan.

This piece aims to highlight how the refugee situation is no longer just a matter of migration, but can rapidly evolve into a regional security challenge in the course of time.

FROM SAFE HAVEN TO FORCED EXODUS

The current deportation surge follows a March 2025 directive ordering all undocumented Afghan nationals to leave or face forced removal. That policy builds on a September 2024 plan that aimed to deport as many as two million Afghans within six months. Though recent regional developments, involving the Iran-Israel conflict, have intensified the pace, this shift has been underway for years, with migration restrictions tightening since 2023. However, the turning point came with the outbreak of armed conflict between Iran and Israel in June 2025, which triggered a new wave of domestic security measures, many of them targeting Afghan communities.

As deportations escalated, Taliban officials in Herat confirmed that more than 30,000 Afghans crossed the border from Iran on a single day in late June. Since mid-June, the daily average has reached over 30,000 people—fifteen times the pre-war level.