INDIA MUST NOT LET GUARD DOWN ON CHINA

The latest border agreement between India and China on patrolling the Line of Actual Control between Depsang and Demchok, leading to disengagement by both sides and thus restoring the 2020 status quo, may come across as a thaw in India-China relations, but it does not mean that the China threat has gone away.

- Joyeeta Basu

Even the meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Russia’s Kazan, does not portend “peace”—at least not yet, or if at all. At the most we can describe the current thaw as a breather, primarily because the nature of China does not inspire confidence. Post the clash in Galwan in mid June 2020, when India stood up to China, the latter started insisting that the border issue should be put on the back burner and it should be business as usual. India was clear that without the border issue “resolved” there was no going ahead with business. Since the border issue seems to have been resolved to a certain extent, there may be resumption of some business, but the risk is that Chinese will flood the Indian markets with cheap goods—not that dumping had stopped in the intervening period of 2020 to 2024. The trade deficit between the two countries is tilted in China’s favour and ranges around $40 billion in the first half of 2024. To stop dumping will not be easy.