DOES IRAN SEEK A WORLD WAR? IRAN’S ATTACKS ON CYPRUS, TÜRKIYE AND AZERBAIJAN TAKES THE WAR TO EUROPE

This week, after America’s attack on Iran, Iran's missile and drone strikes targeting Turkey, Azerbaijan, and several Gulf Arab nations signify a significant enhancement of Iran's coercive capabilities, carrying extensive consequences for regional security frameworks, alliance politics, and the dynamics of global energy and great power relations.

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Since the beginning of 2024, Iran has progressively depended on long-range missiles and armed drones to extend its influence throughout the region, initiating with attacks in Iraq and Syria and culminating in extensive barrages directed at Gulf nations, alongside occurrences involving Turkish and Azerbaijani lands in 2026. This trend illustrates both Tehran's developing deterrence strategy and the increasing susceptibility of neighbouring countries whose territories accommodate Western military forces or are allied with Israel and the US.

Pattern of Iranian Strikes

In January 2024, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched ballistic missiles into Iraq’s Kurdistan Region and eastern Syria, presenting the strikes as a response to terrorist bombings in Kerman and purported Israeli intelligence operations. These actions demonstrated Iran’s readiness to infringe upon the airspace and sovereignty of neighbouring countries in order to target non-state actors and covert entities it links to Israel and jihadist organizations.

The conflict intensified significantly this week following US-Israeli attacks on Iranian soil, which included the assassination of high-ranking Iranian officials. This provocation led Tehran to initiate operations dubbed True Promise characterized by extensive missile and drone strikes. In these assaults, Iran targeted not only Israel and US military installations in the region but also a variety of locations throughout the Gulf, encompassing the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Oman.

Turkey and Azerbaijan in the Firing Line