Where Trump Tariffs Will Hit

BROADLY: COULD IMPACT UP TO 0.5% OF GDP

- Ciaran Ryan

President Donald Trump's 30% tariff on exports from SA to the US, effective from 1 August 2025, contains some notable exceptions.

Minerals considered critical to the US—notably platinum group metals, gold, chrome, and coal—will attract 0% tariffs. That accounts for about half of what SA exports to the US, so excluding these commodities is a major relief.

Where SA will really feel the pain is on the export of cars, already 25% (previously 0%), steel and aluminum, now 50% (previously 25% and 10%), and agricultural products at 30% (most products previously entered the US duty-free). That means SA wines in the US will be considerably more expensive.

Donald MacKay, CEO of XA Global Trade Advisors, said the new tariffs could impact up to 0.5% of SA's GDP. "This is not nothing, but it's not massive either. That doesn't mean to say our economy will contract by that amount (0.5%), but that's the potential scale of the impact."