The trap of war or peace

In the context of current geopolitics, the question of the "Thucydides Trap or orderly multipolar world", has occupied the debate by scholars in South Africa.

- Brian Sokutu

Over a decade ago, Harvard University professor Graham Allison, warned about the "war between the United States and China in the decades ahead". Allison said it was "not just possible, but much more likely than recognised at the moment".

"Indeed, judging by the historical record, war is more likely than not," he argued. But experts such as author and research fellow at Stanford University Xinru Ma have critiqued the Thucydides Trap - the natural, inevitable discombobulation that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power - regarding it as “a selection bias”.

The Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection hosted a recent two-day conference on the topic, which shed light on the thinking. An orderly multipolar world is surely what we all yearn for – not war.