Globalization Is Dead

In November 1985, during their first summit in Geneva, US President Ronald Reagan and Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev slipped away from the official proceedings to speak privately.

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Only years later did we learn what they discussed. Gorbachev told the broadcaster Charlie Rose that Reagan had asked him a startling question: “What would you do if the United States were suddenly attacked by someone from outer space? Would you help us?” Gorbachev replied, “No doubt about it,” to which Reagan responded: “We, too.” Although the two superpowers were locked in a nuclear arms race and staring each other down across Europe, they could still imagine uniting against a common existential threat.

Four decades later, humanity finds itself locked in another arms race. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reports that global defense spending reached a record $2.7 trillion in 2024—an inflation-adjusted increase of 9.4% over the previous year. After nine consecutive years of such spending increases, this surge is unprecedented since the end of the Cold War, with little indication that it will slow. Dozens of countries are expanding their militaries, and more governments are making long-term commitments to boost their defense budgets.

The reasons are many, and some are understandable. In addition to Russia’s war in Ukraine, there are rising tensions in East Asia and the Middle East, as well as vulnerabilities in cyberspace and space. But more fundamentally, this escalation reflects the collapse of globalization as we knew it~meaning a rules-based order anchored in multilateralism, open trade, and international cooperation.