Taiwan Is Under Siege But Not Short Of Options On Its Security

Beijing may be plotting a takeover and Taipei must do what it can

- KARISHMA VASWANI

It makes sense to think that US President Donald Trump's trade war is increasing the risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan because it adds pressure on Beijing. But the self-ruled island isn't more vulnerable because of US tariffs. It's already under siege from the mainland on multiple fronts. Taipei has long been a geopolitical flashpoint. It now risks losing its hard-won autonomy if it does not confront these threats with more urgency. That would mean strengthening military capabilities, passing an overdue defense budget, and preparing citizens for a possibly prolonged period of mainland aggression. It has invested in missile defense systems and asymmetric weaponry, and extended conscription service. But progress on these deterrence measures has been uneven.

Some analysts have speculated whether Trump's tariffs will accelerate China's timeline for unification because Washington is distracted. Beijing has been ramping up military activities. It has sent a surging number of warplanes and coast guard vessels around the island. Strategists have referred to this campaign as an 'anaconda strategy,' a way to strangle Taiwan militarily, economically, diplomatically and psychologically, eventually forcing unification without ever formally declaring war.