Will Stability Rise From Middle East Rubble?

Given the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, and the direct military exchanges between Israel and Iran, it seems hard to imagine any promising prospect for the Middle East in the coming year.

- DENNIS ROSS

To many observers, Donald Trump's return to the White House only adds to the uncertainty. But while one usually should expect the worst in the Middle East, I see possibilities for some new, positive alignments to emerge.

This is not to dismiss or ignore the devastating losses Palestinians have suffered in Gaza; the destruction in parts of Lebanon, including in the southern neighborhoods of Beirut; or the resolve among Israelis—and not just those on the right—never again to be as vulnerable as they were on 7 October 2023. Those who must be engaged in peacemaking are currently lacking in trust, and understandably so. But peacemaking is probably not the right objective for the coming year. Instead, the focus should be on ending ongoing conflicts and building a basis for stability and security; if done well, that will re-establish a foundation for peacemaking.

Such an outcome becomes more likely if new alignments do emerge in the region. Here, perhaps counterintuitively, I have some hope. Hamas's terror attack in 2023—followed the next day by a barrage of rockets fired into northern Israel by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon—unleashed an Israeli military campaign that has inflicted great damage, but which has also profoundly weakened Hamas and Hezbollah. Their respective leaders, Yahya Sinwar and Hassan Nasrallah, and most of their leadership cadres, are now gone.

Proxies Down