Govt plans to set up real-time agri supply-demand model to predict prices

The government is planning to create a real-time supply and demand model for select agricultural commodities that will help it plan and evaluate policy for a volatile market. The "mathematical model" will use dynamic and real-time data from high-frequency indicators and historical trends, said a government official requesting anonymity.

- Puja Das

The step comes at a time when consumers have been battling price volatility in several essential commodities and the government has launched a slew of measures to keep inflation in check.

While inflation in retail cereal prices has been in double digits for several months, recurrent volatility in prices of vegetables like tomatoes and onions has been a sore point for consumers, farmers and inflation managers.

A real-time model could also prevent India from mis-steps like last year’s when it miscalculated the size of its wheat harvest which led to a policy flip-flop—of promising to export wheat following the Ukraine war, and then hastily imposing a ban soon after.