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An upbeat report works best with clarity on risk

Mint Mumbai

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July 10, 2023

The finance ministry's annual economic review exudes optimism on India's economy this year but its sketchy look at important concerns and risks reduces its utility as a document

An upbeat report works best with clarity on risk

The Indian economy stands at a crucial crossroads, with paths leading to growth and sustainable prosperity, or to a cliff edge and sheer drop. Technically, going by official statements, it looks set to carry its growth momentum into fiscal 2023-24, buoyed by favourable tailwinds and signs of a resurgence during 2022-23 (with the year's real GDP coming in at 7.2%), thereby setting the stage for a broader recovery and good times ahead. The finance ministry's Annual Economic Review for 2022-23 provides an upbeat analysis for 2023-24 based on how a concatenation of various growth drivers has propitiously emerged. On the demand side, both consumption and investment provide some signs of a revival in impetus. For consumption growth, the ministry's report draws inspiration from incipient signs of recovery and visibility of traction in various high-frequency indicators, such as sales of two-wheelers and UPI transactions. Even an investment uptick in the last quarter instills hope for India's capex thrust continuing ove

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