Russia-India-China: A big idea that's far too fragile to endure

US pressure is a unifying factor but such a triumvirate is unlikely

- KARISHMA VASWANI

Russia-India-China [triumvirate], an idea floated in the 1990s as a counterweight to the US, is being revived today as a way for the three countries to ride out the storm of President Donald Trump's trade war, [it seems]. But old suspicions mean it is unlikely to endure. Despite their shared grievances with Washington, their partnership is more a marriage of convenience.

That reality will be on display this week when the three nuclear powers converge in Tianjin for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. The Kremlin is pressing for a long-awaited trilateral meeting. If the troika did find new life, it would send a powerful signal that the geopolitical heavyweights are aligning in the face of US pressure. But the inherent tensions between India and China, and economic differences between the three, make that outcome unlikely.

That pressure is most acute for India. Until recently a key American partner, it has borne the brunt of Trump's tariffs. He doubled duties on exports to 50%—due to go into effect on 27 August—as punishment for its purchases of Russian oil.

Beijing, once Washington's primary target, is enjoying a temporary reprieve, but is stuck in a long-term strategic competition. And Russia, battered by sanctions and bogged down in Ukraine, is on the hunt for friends to blunt its isolation.