Oil, gas and gallium can explain America's new security strategy

Washington’ world view is being reshaped by material conditions that enlarge the space for peace

- JAMES K. GALBRAITH

The new National Security Strategy of the US seeks “strategic stability” with Russia.

It declares that China is merely a competitor, that the Middle East is not central to American security, that Latin America is “our hemisphere” and that Europe faces “civilizational erasure.” India barely rates a mention; one might say, as Neville Chamberlain did of Czechoslovakia in 1938, that it’s “a faraway country... of which we know nothing.” Well, so much the better for India, which can take care of itself.

The realpolitik of this document is breathtaking, yet the underlying logic is not stated. It is a logic of resources. With oil flowing thick and fast from Texas and reserves in Canada and Venezuela, the US can exit the Gulf in West Asia and even (in principle, not in practice) leave Israel to its own devices. Russian gas, more precisely the lack of it, has sealed the fate of Europe: Germany is de-industrializing while Britain and their empires long gone, sink toward irrelevance. Sanctions having failed, Russia’s eventual victory in Ukraine is now assured.

With China, the resource issue is rare earths, especially gallium, a byproduct of refining bauxite into alumina. China controls rare earths through a near-mo-nopoly on refining, which could erode with determined efforts over time.