Let's redefine our poverty line to reflect India's economic stature

We're on the cusp of becoming an upper middle-income country and our poverty measurement ought to reflect this progress

- NIRANJAN RAJADHYAKSHA

India appears to be on the yellow brick road towards an important economic milestone in the next five years. It will likely become an upper middle-income country in 2030, the third stage of the very long march from mass poverty to shared prosperity. Few countries reach the end of this journey.

The World Bank categorizes countries into four groups—low income, lower middle-income, upper middle-income and high income. India is currently a lower middle-income country. The third stage is now within reach. The fourth is still in the distant future.

Every April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) publishes its economic forecasts for all member countries five years out into the future. In its latest release a few days ago, the multilateral lender expects India to have a $6.77 trillion economy in 2030. That will mean the average dollar income of an Indian at market exchange rates will be $4,468 in that year, as against $2,878 by the end of 2025. The corresponding numbers in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) are $13,638 and $10,396, respectively.