Squeezed between Putin and Trump, Europe sees a moment of truth

As the U.S. and Russia begin negotiations this coming week about the fate of Ukraine and European security, the shared view in Washington and in Moscow these days is open contempt for the leaders of Europe.

- Yaroslav Trofimov

What happens next will determine whether the alliance of European democracies, inside and outside the European Union, will remain a significant player on the increasingly brutal international stage, where the niceties of the post-World War II international order no longer apply.

"Denial is no longer possible. The message is clear: It's time to take our responsibilities, to safeguard our own security," said France's European affairs minister, Benjamin Haddad. "The first test would be to refuse a capitulation in Ukraine."

The problem is whether Europe is able to rise up to what European leaders now call its biggest security challenge in generations. Doing so would require an immediate increase in military spending, renewed political cohesion, and a willingness to accept that the trans-Atlantic bond that defined the European consensus since 1945 may be irretrievably shattered.

"The question that is important to everybody is: Can we trust the United States of America?" said Nico Lange, a former senior German defense official and a senior fellow of the Munich Security Conference. "There is seriousness now. After 10 years of wake-up calls, the next wake-up call for the Europeans may be an air raid siren."

This test comes at a fraught time. Europe's biggest power, Germany, is in election mode and won't have a stable government for months. A fragile minority government runs France. Countries such as Hungary and Slovakia had sought appeasement with Moscow even before Donald Trump's election.

French President Emmanuel Macron is assembling key European leaders, including British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, for an emergency summit in Paris on Monday.

"Everybody understands that now is the European hour. The only question is whether the jolt will be enough for the patient to wake up," said Gabrielius Landsbergis, who served until recently as Lithuania's foreign minister. "I'm worrying that the jolt might just kill the patient."