Gold, silver may turn volatile after two years of stellar rally

Lower central bank purchases, stronger dollar, cooling safe-haven demand could cap gains

- Ram Sahgal & Srushti Vaidya

After a two-year run of stellar gains, US traders are signalling far more modest returns for gold and silver in 2026, possibly driven by lower central bank purchases, a stronger dollar, and moderating safe-haven demand, according to experts.

Analysts and financial planners are warning domestic investors to brace for bouts of volatility next year, with corrections in silver likely to be sharper, even though expectations could shift with changes in global macro conditions—such as interest rate moves or rising economic uncertainty.

Trader bets on Comex, the world’s most diverse derivatives marketplace, show they expect the most liquid gold futures contract to rise 3.4% and silver 3% by December 2026 from Wednesday's (24 December's) closing of $4,503 and $71.68 per troy ounce (1.10 gm), respectively, per Bloomberg data.

In 2025, Comex generic gold and silver futures rose 67.8% and 127%, respectively, from 1 January to 24 December, the data showed.

Indian gold and silver prices tend to mirror international prices as most domestic demand for both metals is met through imports.