What Elon Musk and Donald Trump Risk Losing in Their High-Stakes Breakup

The billionaires' battle royal could exact steep costs to their empires

- Brian Schwartz & Micah Maidenberg

The aftermath of Donald Trump and Elon Musk's showstopping breakup raises the question: Who has the most to lose? In one of the most consequential moments, Trump threatened to pull billions of dollars in federal contracts from Musk's companies. If that happened, it would ripple across Musk's business empire, including SpaceX, which launches astronauts for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and satellites for the Pentagon.

Underneath the drama is genuine political and financial risk for both billionaires.

Tesla, the electric-vehicle company that Musk helms as chief executive, lost $152.4 billion of market value Thursday—the biggest one-day decline in its capitalization in the company's history. Trump can't lose more than three votes from Republican House members or his "big, beautiful bill" will be derailed. Members of the House Freedom Caucus have already been difficult to corral, airing concerns about the bill's contributions to the deficit, the same argument Musk has made against it.

Here's what's at stake:

Elon Musk

Musk, the CEO of Tesla, SpaceX and xAI, has billions of dollars in government contracts and is pushing for changes to federal regulations to deliver on his promise to investors that he will transform Tesla into an AI and robotics giant worth trillions of dollars.

Trump threatened to terminate government contracts with Musk's companies on Thursday—an idea the president's allies have been pushing since the SpaceX CEO started attacking Trump's cornerstone legislative bill earlier this week, according to a person close to the president.

Musk's SpaceX

Musk's SpaceX has worked closely with the government for years, building close connections with the Pentagon, the intelligence community and NASA. The company frequently blasts off military payloads, and NASA is largely beholden to SpaceX for some of its most high-profile missions.