Fractured Mandate Ahead

Bangladesh’s February election risks legitimising instability as exclusion, violence, and radicalisation reshape India’s most sensitive eastern flank

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Democratic erosion and rising lawlessness threaten to turn a political transition into a regional security crisis

Three countries in India’s immediate vicinity are scheduled to hold elections in the coming weeks and months. Myanmar, which has been devastated by a prolonged civil war, is set to conduct elections shortly. Bangladesh and Nepal will elect new governments in February and March, respectively. Both Bangladesh and Nepal have recently experienced student-led movements that contributed to the collapse of their elected governments.

‘The current situation in Bangladesh constitutes the most severe strategic challenge to India since the 1971 War of Liberation. With its enduring ally, Sheikh Hasina, deposed, India stares at a radicalised and pro-Pakistan regime in Bangladesh, heightened security concerns and geopolitical challenges.

‘The Bangladeshi Election Commission has scheduled elections for February 12, 2026. The Awami League, which governed from 2009 to 2024, has been barred from political activities, effectively disenfranchising about one-third of the electorate. Excluding such a significant segment undermines democratic principles and suggests authoritarian tendencies. Notably, Western democracies have remained silent on this development.

‘The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) are the main contenders. While BNP previously received tacit support from Jamaat, they now compete as rivals. BNP and the National Citizens Party (NCP) are cooperating informally. Formed in February 2025 by Students Against Discrimination and the Jatiya Nagorik Committee after the July uprising, the NCP is Bangladesh's first student-led political party, offering voters a third option.