Bayrou's Final Gamble

France once again stands at the brink of a political rupture, as Prime Minister François Bayrou prepares to face a September 8 confidence vote that could end his short-lived tenure and plunge the Republic deeper into chaos.

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Bayrou, a centrist who only months ago was projected as a figure capable of stabilising a fragile Assembly, has instead chosen a perilous gamble by tying his fate to an austerity budget that few in parliament and fewer still in the public support.

His plan to cut €44 billion in spending in 2026, after last year's deficit climbed to 5.8 per cent of GDP, was intended to signal fiscal discipline and EU compliance. But in a country already weary of belt-tightening, the symbolism of slashing expenditure—including by abolishing two public holidays—has given his opponents ample ammunition. France's debt has ballooned to €3.3 trillion, over 114 per cent of GDP, and debt servicing alone eats up 7 per cent of state spending. Bayrou argues that austerity is unavoidable, but his rivals see a golden chance to bring him down. From Jean-Luc Mélenchon's far-left France Unbowed to Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally, the opposition has scented blood, and in a divided Assembly where centrists and allied conservatives hold just 210 seats compared to more than 320 across left and right, his survival looks increasingly improbable.