Ports face ‘goods recession’ as imports drop due to tariffs

Import volumes are projected to slow through the year-end holidays and into 2026, as tariff uncertainty weighs on cargo owners and the outlook for consumer spending remains clouded, new data show.

- By Laura CurtTIs

According to Descartes Systems Group's latest Global Shipping Report, the volume of U.S. container imports slipped 0.1% last month compared with September, marking only the second October in the last decade to show a month-over-month decline and “a clear sign of importer caution.”

The October total of 2.31 million 20-foot equivalent container units, or TEUs, was 7.5% lower than the year-earlier level and left the year-to-date tally just 0.9% higher than the total during the first 10 months of 2024. Separate figures from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates predict year-on-year declines in inbound container volumes of 14.4% for November and 17.9% in December.

U.S. importers are facing “persistent geopolitical friction and regulatory volatility, which drive higher levels of supply chain uncertainty and complexity as policies shift and evolve quickly,” Jackson Wood, director of industry strategy at Descartes, said in the report released Monday.

President Trump's return to the White House in January kicked off a rollercoaster year for manufacturers, retailers and other U.S. industries dependent on goods from abroad. They're mostly absorbing his higher import taxes, while small businesses in particular are struggling to manage supply networks without a clear picture of their landed costs.

The future of Trump's tariff reach was thrown into fresh doubt last week as the Supreme Court sounded skeptical about the constitutionality of his broad use of import taxes.