These sectors will be key to UAE growth in 2026

As we head into 2026, the macro picture in the UAE remains supportive, as most sectors are expected to perform strongly, analysts say.

- Somshankar Bandyopadhyay [e-mail]

The country has steadily shifted from an oil-dependent model into a diversified global hub, with non-oil industries now accounting for a huge portion of GDP, said Farhan Badami, Business Development Manager at eToro. The Central Bank of the UAE expects real GDP growth of around 5.3 per cent in 2026, up from roughly 4.9 per cent in 2025, driven by both oil and non-oil activity.

Inflation is low and contained. Headline inflation slowed to around 0.7 per cent in mid-2025 and the central bank expects inflation of about 1.8 per cent in 2026 and which gives policymakers room to support growth. With the dirham pegged to the US Dollar, the central bank largely tracks the US Federal Reserve, with rate cuts in the region tracking the Fed in the back end of 2025. Those cuts may slow in early 2026, but markets still expect two further cuts from the Fed which could see the UAE follow suit.

"Credit growth has been robust, with loans increasing by double digits year-over-year in 2025, and banks remain well-capitalised with low nonperforming loan ratios. Tourism, aviation and logistics continue to be key growth engines, particularly in Dubai, where transport and storage are among the largest and fastest-growing sectors. The residential real estate market has also shown strong momentum, underpinned by population inflows and policy support," Badami said.

Sectors to watch