What history tells us about ’25 contest

Bihar's polity is at the cusp of the proverbial fork in the road, where factors and personalities that have dominated the state's politics are fading into oblivion and a new set of stable actors is yet to emerge

- Roshan Kishore, Nishant Ranjan and Abhishek Jha

Bihar will elect its 18th assembly in a two-phase election beginning November 6. On the face of it, the contest is about whether Nitish Kumar will become the chief minister of the state for the fifth consecutive time after an election — he has taken oath as a CM nine times but either could not prove his majority (once) or resigned and took office again with change alliance partners — or whether Tejashwi Yadav will lead his Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) to a victory after two decades.

The fine print of this contest, however, is even more interesting, as Bihat's polity is at the cusp of the proverbial fork in the road, where factors and personalities that have dominated the state's politics are fading into oblivion and a new set of stable actors is yet to emerge. To understand what the forthcoming polls mean for Bihar, it is essential to engage with its recent history.

The rise, fall and dilemma of Lalu Prasad and RJD's politics

Lalu Prasad Yadav is one of the two poster boys of Mandal politics in north India, the other being Mulayam Singh Yadav from Uttar Pradesh who passed away in 2022. Unlike Mulayam, who never saw a full stint as a chief minister in Uttar Pradesh — his son and heir apparent Akhilesh had one after his victory in 2012 — Lalu controlled the reins of power in Bihar for 15 years of which seven years were under his chief ministership and another eight under his wife Rabri Devi who he nominated after his arrest as an accused in the fodder scam in 1997. These facts might suggest that Lalu and his party (Janata Dal/RJD) had exceptional support in Bihar. However, a look at basic election statistics suggests that this is not the case.