War, peace and democracy in Europe

The Russia-Ukraine conflict when it started in February 2022-some see Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2018 as its beginning - was seen by many commentators as a battle to preserve the post-Cold War liberal order.

- By Sreedev Krishnakumar and Roshan Kishore

Almost four years later and more than a year since Donald Trump returned as US President, opinions on what is at stake in the conflict are divergent. Trump wants the war to end on very different terms than his European peers. Its resolution remains a matter of speculation and negotiation. The larger questions from this conflict, go beyond what the war itself has done to Russia and Ukraine. This two-part series will weigh on some of these issues.

Ukraine has suffered more in the immediate aftermath of the war than Russia

Both Russia and Ukraine suffered an economic contraction in 2022, the year in which the ongoing military conflict began. However, if one were to compare their economic trajectories with pre-war GDP in 2021, Ukraine seems to have suffered more than Russia. Latest IMF data expects Russia's 2025 GDP to be 138.9% of its 2021 GDP compared to 104% for Ukraine. To be sure, IMF projections do show the Russian economy slowing down going forward, suggesting that it is finally beginning to show the adverse effects of the ongoing conflict.