Israeli restraint suggests Iran's strategic leverage

For 24 days between October 1 and 25, West Asia waited for Israel's inevitable retaliation to Iran's ballistic missile barrage which itself was a response to Israel's assassinations of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon (followed by the start of the Israel Defense Force's (IDF) ongoing invasion of South Lebanon).

- Bashir Ali Abbas

When it came, in three waves before dawn broke in Tehran, it brought with it some markers of change.

In its attack, Israel struck key air defence systems around Iranian energy sites such as those in Abadan, Bandar Imam Khomeini, and Tang-e-Bijar. Notwithstanding attacks on Iranian missile production sites such as the complexes in Parchin and Parand, Israel effectively held back from attacking what these air defence sites were guarding.

This is the first time the IDF announced the conduct and completion of an operation in Iran in real time, breaking the traditional pattern of Israeli responsibility being inferred rather than expressly claimed.

The IDF's target profile of military installations in Iran was also proportionate to Iran's own target selection in Israel; in April, Israel's response to Iran's cruise missile/drone barrage was an unclaimed strike on a single Iranian air defence facility.

Both aspects mark a moment (even if fleeting) in West Asia, where Iran and Israel have engaged symmetrically conducting direct strikes on each other's territory, downplaying their impact, and asking the other side to walk away and de-escalate.

Given the military advantage that Israel holds over Iran, this exchange showed Tehran's ability to leverage regional and global geopolitics to limit Tel Aviv's hand.

Three crucial factors enabled this.

First, compared to Israel's other military choices in Gaza, West Bank and Lebanon where the IDF has acted with near impunity, Washington has been relatively successful in influencing Israel's tactical choices vis-a-vis Iran.

In April, Tehran relied on the Oman-facilitated backchannel to telegraph its upcoming attack, complemented by the slow conduct of its attack, announcements in Iranian media, and broadcasts on social media -- all of which made it more theatre-to-preserve-deterrence than an attack.