Govt schemes' success, Modi factor key for BJP

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is banking on collective leadership, the reach, effectiveness and success of its large welfare schemes, and an aggressive electoral campaign built around Prime Minister Narendra Modi to prevent the outcome of the upcoming polls in five states from being a repeat of 2018 when it suffered a setback, losing power in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

- Smriti Kak Ramachandran

It did not have much to show for in Telangana and Mizoram where it won a seat each, although its ally the Mizo National Front won 26 of the 40 seats to form government in the North Eastern state.

Elections to pick new assemblies in these states will begin on November 7 and the results will be declared on December 3.

The stakes in 2023 are perhaps higher than in 2018. The BJP-led NDA completes two terms in power in 2024. And with a tally of 303 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the party, some political analysts argue, may have peaked.

The BJP may also face a united opposition if the constituents of the INDIA bloc can iron out their internal differences. And finally, the issue of a caste census, a precursor to a political and legal push for proportionate reservation, could fracture the coalition the BJP has built among voters across the upper castes, nondominant other backward classes (OBCs) and the scheduled castes and tribes on the back of its focus on Hindutva and welfarism.

At stake, specifically to these elections, is also its ability to break new ground-in Telangana, where it has sought to position itself as the natural rival to the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi, although most analysts believe the contest is largely between the incumbent and the Congress -- and retain its gains in the North-east, potentially at risk from the Union government's and the party-led state government's handling of the Manipur ethnic conflict.

The BJP is confident of outperforming its opponents based on the success of its welfare programmes, its foreign policy wins, the passage of landmark bills such as the women's reservation bill and the popularity of PM Modi.

Collective leadership

The BJP is counting on its "collective leadership" strategy in these elections to buck anti-incumbency, enforce a generational shift and weave a coalition of castes by moving away from a personality-oriented election.