Climate crisis exposes flaws as some rivers may dry up quicker

The Indus river basin, among the most vulnerable regions globally to climate change, is experiencing dramatically different impacts across its eastern and western tributaries, recent scientific research has shown, potentially making previous agreements on sharing of waters between India and Pakistan irrelevant.

- Jayashree Nandi

Approximately 50-60% of the Indus basin's annual water discharge comes from snow and glacial melt, with recent research revealing stark differences in how climate change affects various parts of the basin.

Recent papers have now found that western tributaries like the Indus, Kabul, Jhelum and Chenab are fed by glaciers with more stored water, while eastern tributaries including the Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej draw from significantly lower glacier stored water reserves. Crucially, the pace of glacial melt is higher in the Western Himalayas that feed eastern rivers compared to the Upper Indus basin. This east-west disparity challenges the fundamental assumptions of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, which allocated rivers based on historically stable flow patterns.

"From an entirely scientific perspective, the water sharing practices need to be revisited in view of climate change that can alter flow and increase disasters downstream," said Anil Kulkarni, distinguished visiting scientist and glaciologist from Indian Institute of Science (IISC).

The issue has gained renewed significance after India put the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance following a terrorist attack in Kashmir on April 22. Under the treaty, India exclusively uses water from the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej), while Pakistan has rights to the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab), which hold 80% of the basin's water.