CENTRE FORWARD

India is at a turning point. If Prime Minister Narendra Modi wins a third term, he will match Nehru's record of electoral wins, amid a Congress fade. BJP will be emboldened at home and abroad. The struggle for regional parties will become a scramble, amid a strengthening Centre

- Prashant Jha

Each general elections so far- and this year's will be the 18th-has been a way for an extraordinarily diverse Indian society to talk to each other, organise itself into factions, compete, answer fundamental questions about priorities, anxieties, hopes, and then give direction to the Indian state, both in terms of the agenda and the actors who will take that agenda forward.

2024 will be no different, as the largest democratic exercise in the world - each Indian election surpasses the preceding one in having the most voters in the world determines what future citizens want.

The political battle

The political contours of the battle are clear. Prime Minister Narendra Modi starts out as the favourite for a third term. The BJP is seeking an absolute majority, a feat that will lead to Modi matching Jawaharlal Nehru's record of three successive electoral wins. To do this, however, the BJP needs to enhance its victory tally in UP to offset any losses elsewhere; sustain or increase its tally in Bihar, with only a smattering of smaller parties as allies; sweep the western border states, central Indian states and northern hill states again; minimise its losses in Maharashtra, where newer permutations have emerged, and do the same in Karnataka, where the Congress just won state polls; maintain its dominance over the North-East; and continue to expand on the eastern coast from Bengal through Odisha down to Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.

The BJP has shown an ability to strike such targets as it rides on Modi as a unifying figure, and on an organisation that can get voters to booths.