The age of adventurism and its cost for nations

Recklessness and violation of international law pays. That is the tragic lesson of modern geopolitics

- Prashant Jha

Russia invaded Ukraine. It hasn't been easy. It isn't over. Moscow is mired in the war. It lives with increased, almost crippling, dependence on China. And it suffers setbacks of the kind it did with Ukraine's recent drone attacks.

But Russia hasn't lost. It is arguably stronger than it has been at any point since February 2022. The project to internationally isolate Russia is dead. The main protagonist of that project, the US, now so desperately wants to do a deal with Russia that it is willing to barter away its investments in European security and Ukrainian unity and sovereignty.

If Russian President Vladimir Putin isn't yet taking the deal, it isn't surprising. A man is shaped by his experiences. And Putin's experience probably tells him something simple: Adventurism pays. He invaded a country. He has got away with it so far. And he may well be tempted to see how far he can go in wresting more Ukrainian territory, dictating its future foreign policy choices, and shaping the security architecture of eastern and central Europe.

Israel invaded Gaza. To be sure, it was Hamas's terrorism that triggered the crisis. But Israel's wildly disproportionate response cost the State global credibility and radicalised a generation globally that will continue to see Israel as a genocidal power. It has drained Israel of national resources and undermined its democracy. It has eroded prospects of normalisation with Arab neighbours. It has jeopardised ambitious connectivity projects. And it has probably undermined Israeli security in the long term in ways that are hard to envisage at the moment.