No consensus, global conflicts may hit climate goals

WARN } AHEAD OF COP30

- Jayashree Nandi

The European Union (EU) has not yet announced its nationally determined contribution (NDC).

The biggest challenge for the EU though is to build consensus among all 27 EU countries to endorse an ambitious NDC, according to those aware of the matter.

EU environment ministers were scheduled to meet on September 18 to discuss their 2040 climate target. But, according to people aware of the matter, a final call on climate target may be further delayed. The initial deadline for submission of NDCs for the 2035 period was February 2025. The new deadline is by end of September.

“The EU needs to update its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement by September 2025. This extended deadline allows the United Nations climate secretariat enough time to assess the collective effect of all national climate plans, relative to the targets under the Paris Agreement, before the start of the COP30 climate change conference in Belém, Brazil, in November 2025.

The EU's NDC is formally adopted by the Council of the EU. The third NDC will have a time horizon of 2035, and is therefore linked with the EU climate target for 2040, which is to be adopted as an amendment to the European Climate Law under the Ordinary Legislative Procedure,” the EU Parliament Think Tank said in a post. In a meeting, held under Chatham House rules, experts said political consensus will be key for the EU.

But, the US's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and reversal of key climate and energy policies has impacted the talks, especially certain bilateral measures that America has been taking, which make it difficult for some countries to act, according to experts. But, the EU NDC may come through around or just before COP30, other experts said.