Welsh constituency could be latest scalp for Nigel Farage

It is 731 years since the Welsh constituency of Caerphilly has seen a siege by insurgents attempting to seize power from the established rulers.

- David Maddox, The Independent

Back in 1294, Madog ap Llewellyn attacked the great 13th century castle which stands in the midst of Caerphilly in a bid to end the previously unchallenged authority of Edward I. Where Madog failed, Nigel Farage’s Reform now expect to succeed. The siege by insurgents in 2025 though looks set to mark the dramatic collapse of Labour's previously unassailable hold on Wales, with Plaid Cymru also expected to be a serious challenger to the incumbent party.

Caerphilly has been a Labour constituency since 1918 when it was won by Methodist local preacher Alfred Onions. The party has held the seat in every single election ever since, even when much of the red wall fell in 2019. For a brief period in the 1980s the seat was help by a Social Democrat Party (SDP) MP when its Labour representative, Ednyfed Hudson Davies, defected. But he lost the seat to a future Labour Welsh Secretary Ron Davies in the very next election in 1983. Caerphilly’s fortress has represented Labour's impregnable hold, not just on the town but Wales itself, which it has run for an unbroken period since devolution in 1999.