POST OP SINDOOR

Rising China Threat, India's Strategy

- Col Rajesh Bhukar

The emerging Sino-Indian relations has major implications on shaping the world geo-political scenario, yet how China perceives India more as a competitor or threat has not been really explored.

Whereas most literature on this relationship has observed an asymmetric threat perception between the two states, with India identifying a greater threat from China than the other way around, but the changing dynamics of international geo-politics, India’s successful Op Sindoor, growing proximity with the US and retaining balanced relations with Russia, assertion in global fora, India emerging as voice of South along with phenomenal rise in economic growth and critical role of India in current US vs Rest of the world tariff war has made China more cautious about its growing global stature, secure neighbourhood and finding India as a bigger threat.

As a result, the level of threat perception is becoming more balanced and symmetrical. This shift in perception will have major implications for the overall dynamics of bilateral relations and more likely to shift the relationship from competition to confrontational and conflictual and China emerging as a bigger threat than ever so far.

India’s fast-growing economy, demographic dividend, geographic position, and growing strategic partnerships have made it a more confident and assertive foreign policy actor. Chinese policy makers have taken note of these changes. India’s assertive border policy and growing partnership with the U.S. pose a growing challenge to China's power. This makes Beijing wary about actions that it previously overlooked due the asymmetry in the relationship. At the same time, so far India perceives most Chinese actions as threatening, so China’s wariness will further enhance India’s threat perception.