IRAN-ISRAEL 'THRESHOLD WAR' ...HAS REWRITTEN NUCLEAR ESCALATION RULES

Israel's conflict with Iran represents far more than another Middle Eastern crisis it marks the emergence of a dangerous new chapter in nuclear rivalries that has the potential to reshape global proliferation risks for decades to come.

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What began with Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and other targets on June 13, 2025 has now spiraled into the world's first full-scale example of what I as an expert in nuclear security call a "threshold war" - a new and terrifying form of conflict where a nuclear weapons power seeks to use force to prevent an enemy on the verge of nuclearization from making that jump. As missiles continue to rain down on both Tehran and Tel Aviv with hundreds dead in Iran and at least 24 killed in Israel - the international community is witnessing the collapse of traditional deterrence frameworks in real time.

Unlike traditional nuclear rivalries where both sides possess declared arsenals like India and Pakistan, who despite their tensions operate under mutual deterrence - this new threshold dynamic creates an inherently unstable escalation spiral. Iran increasingly believes it cannot deter Israeli aggression without nuclear weapons, yet every step toward acquiring them invites more aggressive Israeli strikes. Israel, for its part, cannot permanently eliminate Iran's nuclear knowledge through military means it can only delay it through means that would seemingly guarantee future Iranian determination to acquire the ultimate deterrent.