India's water weapon

A Collapse of Indus Waters Treaty May Bring Momentary Leverage for India, But at a Big Cost

- ASHISH KAUL

A move that could reshape South Asian geopolitics, India's signal to renegotiate or cancel the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has raised alarms in Pakistan. Signed in 1960 with World Bank mediation, the IWT allocated three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India and three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) primarily to Pakistan. The treaty, having survived wars and decades of tension, now faces its gravest threat.

The Indus Basin is Pakistan's lifeline. The western rivers supply about 76% of Pakistan's water, irrigating 80% of its farmland, and supporting 90% of food production. With just 240 mm annual rainfall, Pakistan depends on these rivers for 90% of its freshwater, sustaining over 240 million people. Agriculture, which employs nearly 40% of the workforce and contributes 24% to GDP, hinges on the Indus canal system, one of the world's largest. Dams like Tarbela and Mangla, fed by these rivers, also power a big portion of Pakistan's electricity.

Pakistan's water crisis is worsened by poor irrigation, water-intensive crops, and inefficient management. A 2018 International Monetary Fund report ranked Pakistan third among nations facing severe water shortages. Climate change and glacial melt, after initially increasing flows, are expected to reduce peak water levels by 2030.