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Tectonic shifts

Financial Express Kochi

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April 13, 2025

Quakes are becoming more frequent the world over. Japan has even forecast a megaquake in the coming years

- GARIMA SADHWANI

N MARCH 31, the Japanese government came out with a forecast report that Japan is on a high alert for megaquakes for the next 30 years, raising significant concerns about the economy and about life on the island country itself.

The country stands to suffer losses of up to $1.81 trillion (which is almost half of the country's gross domestic product), potentially lose an estimated 2,98,000 lives, and displace as many as 1.2 million people (which is close to 1% of its population).

Of the forecast fatalities, the report estimates that approximately 2,15,000 lives will be lost to the tsunami triggered by the quake, as many as 73,000 people could die from buildings collapsing, and fires could cause 9,000 deaths.

Previously, Japanese authorities had estimated that the megaquake could cause damages worth $1.4 trillion.

A megaquake is an earthquake that has a magnitude of 8 or higher.

The last megaquake that took place on the Nankai Trough in Japan was in 1946, along the edge of Shikoku. It was a magnitude 8 disaster that led to the loss of over 1,300 lives.

In 1940, another major earthquake of 7.5 magnitude had struck off the coast of Hokkaido and induced a tsunami.

At least 10 people died in it and 24 were injured.

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