NAMAL'S ASCENT: PRESIDENTIAL 2024 AS RELIABLE COMPARATIVE FOR LG RESULTS

The parliamentary performance of the JVP/NPP greatly benefited from fleeting enthusiasm, resulting in what statisticians describe as a "measurement bias" instead of indicating a true shift in political alignment

- KKS PERERA

The analysis of electoral trends demands thoughtful consideration of which comparative baselines yield the most meaningful insights.

When examining the recently concluded Local Government (LG) election results, compelling evidence suggests that the 2024 presidential election results provide the most appropriate analytical foundation significantly more so than either parliamentary elections or the previous 2018 LG elections, where SLPP demonstrated convincing dominance.

When someone wins the presidency, especially a newcomer, it creates a temporary wave of excitement that influences the next election. Voters jump on the bandwagon of the winning side, even if they wouldn't normally support that party. This snowball effect twists the parliamentary results that follow. The "Two-Thirds" outcome doesn't really show what voters think longterm it's just catching the overflow from the presidential win. The impact was even stronger because these two elections happened less than two months apart the closest timing in history. Voters barely had time to catch their breath before heading back to the polls. Result: NPP's unrealistic gain from 42% to 61%.

Parliamentary Results Anomaly

The 2024 parliamentary results represent a statistical anomaly that should be treated with caution in analytical frameworks. This psychological momentum creates a distorting effect on voter behaviour that does not accurately represent long-term political sentiment. The 'Two-Thirds' result in Parliament is what data experts would call an unusual case, caused by a clear outside factor the close win in the presidential election and the way it affected voters' thinking.