When the GNU wobbles, don't forget that the world is watching

Recent media reports suggest the government of national unity (GNU) could collapse because of disagreements over the national Budget and the ANC's reluctance to share economic policymaking with the DA.

- By Lisa Otto

This disagreement mirrors earlier tensions over foreign policy, notably on South Africa's position on Israel and the conflict in Gaza, as well as the DA's proposal for an interministerial committee to address foreign policy matters, including the country's forthcoming G20 presidency.

These developments raise questions about the foundational agreements of coalition governance for this administration, established after last year's elections.

Ministerial portfolio allocations emerged, not as a matter of formality but as a result of rigorous negotiations determining which party leads in specific domains. Portfolios like finance and foreign affairs are particularly strategic in any such negotiations and are seldom assigned without careful consideration, given that the party that secures the portfolio can typically be expected to set the policy direction.

It is during these negotiations that parties must establish the mechanisms of governance in key areas alongside their shared priorities and mechanisms for consultation on issues where they disagree. To ensure unity, parties may agree to avoid contentious or divisive initiatives, but this does not mean that every party gets a say in every decision.

Before the GNU's formation, the ANC was explicit about retaining control of ideologically sensitive portfolios, including finance and foreign affairs. One must presume that, with the government having been formed, each party accepted the outcome of the negotiations.

The emergence of coalition governance at national level was widely welcomed by the international community, with many observers viewing it as a pragmatic and stabilising response to the outcome of South Africa's 2024 elections. Global reactions ranged from cautious optimism to enthusiastic support, particularly from diplomats and investors who had grown wary of the ANC's trajectory in recent years.