Sri Lanka tourism may fall short of 2025 arrival and earning targets

SRI Lanka's tourism industry is poised for one of its strongest years since the crisis years of 2019-2022, but the country is unlikely to hit its ambitious targets of 3 million arrivals and $ 5 billion in earnings by the year end.

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A new sector report by CT Smith Securities forecasts 2.4 million arrivals and $3.4 billion in earnings for the year, whilst projecting visitors to climb to 3 million and tourism revenue to $4.3 billion in 2026.

"We remain optimistic about the growth of the tourism sector heading into 2025E, which is likely to exceed 2018 levels, with increased interest from key source markets in the near term," the report noted, while cautioning that the Government's stated goals will be out of reach this year.

Despite falling short of its lofty 2025 goals, it noted that the country's tourism sector is on a growth path.

By mid-September 2025, Sri Lanka had welcomed 1.64 million foreign visitors, already surpassing arrivals during the same period in 2018, the benchmark year for the sector. This inflow generated an estimated $2.3 billion in revenue over the first eight months, a 6% year-on-year (YoY) increase and accounted for 6.3% of GDP in the first half of the year. Average daily arrivals stood at 6,389 for the year to date, in line with the highs of 2018 and 2019, though September's figure of 5,383 reflected a seasonal slowdown, marking a 32% YoY increase, but a 16% month-on-month (MoM) dip.