Roadmap for Sri Lanka’s regenerative future

nut with yield declines due to a climate regime of longer dry spells punctuated by high-intensity rain. Beyond the agronomy, these swings undermine wage days for casual rural labour, depress seasonal cashflows for smallholders, and trigger distress borrowing.

- Dr. Shatadru Chattopadhayay

Sri Lankan universities and national research bodies have documented how climate variability is reshaping the social fabric of rural life. Fieldwork led by the University of Peradeniya (2024) in dry-zone communities has linked erratic rainfall to household food insecurity and declining diet quality, while case studies describe the way disrupted Maha and Yala rice calendars compress demand for hired labour and erode women’s home-garden surpluses that typically fund school and health expenses. The island-specific marine and coastal risks compound these pressures beyond the paddy field.

Plantation crops face the same challenges

The challenges are not restricted to staple crops alone. Sri Lanka’s four main plantation crops— tea, rubber, spices and coconut— are adjusting as climate change upends weather patterns. Erratic monsoons and droughts disrupt yields, raise farming costs and stir economic and social concerns. Climate change, coupled with falling tea prices, higher cultivation expenses, increased pest pressures and a shrinking labour force, has created formidable headwinds. The Ethical Tea Partnership notes that by mid-century "the optimal suitability of tea growing regions in Sri Lanka will be reduced by 14% and by 2070, suitability in Sri Lanka will decline by nearly 30%." Rubber estates faced climate-aggravated blight in 2023, thriving in unseasonal rain and reducing latex yields by up to 30% on some estates. Coconuts—the “tree of life”—have wilted under recurrent droughts; the Central Bank recorded a 31.6% year-on-year output decline in February 2025, and a single nut now costs about twice what it did three years ago.

Water: Quantity and quality