'Never late to the party with growth's long runway'

The merger between UBS and Credit Suisse (CS) has emboldened Swiss banking plans in India. GAUTAM CHHAOCHHARIA, managing director and head of global markets in India at UBS, says this is an opportune time given the long runway for growth. In an interview with Samie Modak and Sundar Sethuraman in Mumbai, Chhaochharia discusses factors impacting the markets and the economy. Edited excerpts:

- Samie Modak and Sundar Sethuraman

Global markets have had a good run this year. Any global headwinds that could spoil the party?

While markets have had a good run, uncertainty has remained elevated and may persist. Despite geopolitical pressures, we haven't seen a collapse in global growth or severe and sustained market disruptions.

There have been potential bank runs in the US, China's slowdown, and concerns surrounding its property cycle. Therefore, when considering the broader picture, including the Indian context, the risk lies in a black swan event or a big slowdown in global growth.

How have markets remained resilient to global turmoil?

There are two main reasons for this resilience. Historically, geopolitical turmoil has spread primarily through oil prices and the financial system.

In terms of the financial system, the influence of countries like Russia and Ukraine is quite limited. However, a geopolitical event in a country with a higher weight or stronger linkage to the global financial system could have a more profound impact.

Is there anything specific to watch in the Budget?