Global liquidity, earnings have greater impact on markets

The years 2013, 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2024 saw rainfall ranging from 106 per cent to 111 per cent of the LPA, with median calendar-year returns of 8.98 per cent and annual returns ranging between 4 per cent and 16 per cent.

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In contrast, 2009, 2012, 2014, 2015 and 2018 saw rainfall between 78 per cent and 93 per cent of the average, yet the median return for these years was 25.7 per cent. The lowest return during those drier years came in 2015, at -5 per cent; the highest was in 2009, when the market surged 81.03 per cent amid a post-global financial crisis rebound, even as rainfall was just 78 per cent of the LPA.

Global liquidity, earnings, and broader economic activity often have a greater impact on market performance than monsoon rainfall, according to experts.