10-point guide to Bihar results

The outcome marks the end of Lalu as a political force. While Nitish’s phase is a matter of time, the BJP has a hawk’s eye. If only they could find some serious local leadership

- SHEKHAR GUPTA

Here we go with our 10 quick takeaways from this Bihar election result.

The first is that however incredible this landslide might look, the ossified vote banks remain. As fights become more direct, either between two parties or alliances, the gap between a rout and a landslide can be just a few percentage points. The JDU got 15.39 per cent vote in 2020 and it has now gone up by about 4 percentage points to 19.26 (provisional figures at the time of writing). The BJP has risen, but only by a percentage point to 20.11 (provisional figures). Both have contested in a few seats fewer but let’s read that as marginal because these have gone to their allies. The most important ally, the Paswan dynasty’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), for example, contested just 29 seats this time, compared to 135 in 2020. Its vote percentage has remained frozen at just over§ percent. It’s evident that in the other constituencies, its tiny vote parcels must've gone to the BJP or JDU.

Now, flip the coin. The Rashtriya Janata Dal’s vote share has remained almost constant at around 23 per cent, as has the Congress’s around 9 per cent. It is clear, therefore, that the two alliance partners have not lost any vote share. It is just that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has built a better alliance with the LJP and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) to build that additional 5-8 per cent kicker over frozen BJP/JDU votes. That kicker is the difference between a rout and a landslide. This is the central message of this election. The rival cannot take away your committed voters. You have to stitch alliances to bring in the “others”.