Upcoming Myanmar vote tests Asean

Myanmar is heading to the polls from Dec 28 through mid-January 2026. The big question is whether the world community will accept the outcome of the national election.

- Kavi Chongkittavorn

The planned election already reeks of fraudulence. The Tatmadaw — a term for Myanmar’s military — remains in total control of the country’s administration. But outside of the urban areas in the central region, a large swath of territory is under the control of ethnic and resistance groups.

As such, voter turnout is expected to be low due to safety and accessibility concerns, even though the Myanmar state election body is introducing voting machines in a bid to ensure the election process can proceed.

The voting will take place in 267 out of 330 townships, or around 80% of the country. The number could increase pending the Tatmadaw’s attempt to regain its lost territory and those still under martial law.

Under the 2008 Constitution, 25% of all seats in Myanmar’s parliament are reserved for the military, giving the State Administration Council (SAC) a guaranteed bloc of 166 lawmakers. To form the next so-called civilian government, the junta’s proxy party would therefore only need to win 167 of the 498 contested seats — just over a third of the elected share — to secure a parliamentary majority.

It is interesting to note that this time, overseas Myanmar workers are allowed to vote if they register their names beforehand. The process began last week and will continue until Sept 7. It is doubtful whether these overseas workers will want to register and disclose their whereabouts to embassy officials. Nearly all the migrants, one way or another, go abroad for better jobs and opportunities. They are also mostly supporters of the National League for Democracy (NLD) and opposition parties.

According to the timeline, a new parliament will be convened in February, even though the charter allows 90 days to form a government. The new government will be formulated in March with Sen Gen Min Aung Hlaing as president and current deputy leader of SAC, Gen Soe Win, possibly as vice president. It will be old, stale wine in a new bottle.