TRADE TALK AND DOMESTIC POLITICS DRIVE SENTIMENT

Thai shares rebounded in line with global bourses last week, shortly before falling back closer to 1,200 points. Early in the week, the market was driven by euphoria over the prospects for a US-China trade deal. Washington cut tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% while China trimmed its rates to 10% for 90 days.

- BUALUANG SECURITIES

Taken together with the outcome of a US-UK deal calling for 10% tariffs, the market now anticipates a negotiation range of between 10% and 30% for other countries, which could be good news for Thailand which faces a 36% rate.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump chose to deal next with Middle East countries by sealing deals for planes, weapons and semiconductors while inviting them to invest in data centres and Al by using US chips and equipment.

Domestic politics remain a pressuring factor for Thai shares. Concerns include the debate on the fiscal 2026 budget bill scheduled for late May amid reports of growing disagreements among coalition parties, and the upcoming court hearing on June 13 on former premier Thaksin Shinawatra’s hospital stay.

Equities have been weighed down despite decent first-quarter earnings of listed firms, which mostly beat or met expectations.

Meanwhile, the tourism sector is seeing far weaker-than-expected Chinese arrivals, amid signs that they have shifted to other destinations. This puts pressure on domestic consumption and tourism-related stocks.