The mystery of Trump's threat of 25% tariff on Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan, a resource-rich country that borders Russia and China, does a minimal amount of trade with the United States. And based on how Kazakh government officials interpreted Trump's new policies, more than 90% of its exports to the United States would be exempt from the tariff. Still, it said it was ready to negotiate the terms of trade with Washington.

- DAISUKE WAKABAYASHI

Then last week, Kazakhstan was one of nearly two dozen countries to receive nearly identical warning letters from Trump. Strike a deal by Aug 1 or face a 25% tariff, the letter directed.

The aggressive approach by the Trump administration is a bit of a turnabout for Kazakhstan. US officials have spent much of the past decade promising money and support to prod the country to open up its economy, especially mining.

Historically, the United States was a major investor in Kazakhstan, primarily for oil and gas development. American investment in the country peaked in 2022, and it has been trending lower since.

In more recent years, mining companies from the United States and other countries have been looking for ways to tap Kazakhstan's minerals. In 2024, the Kazakh government issued more than 50% more mining exploration licenses than in the previous year.

POTENTIAL FOR MINERALS

Kazakhstan is a potential hotbed for the critical minerals and rare-earth metals that are essential in making electric vehicles and other cutting-edge products. The world's supply of these materials, which the United States desperately needs, is dominated by Chinese companies.