Problems await the new BoT governor

The first problem incoming Bank of Thailand (BoT) governor Vitai Ratanakorn will face is political uncertainty.

- Chartchai Parasuk

If I were a foreign investor, I would stay away from Thailand until May next year to see a clearer direction in Thai politics before deciding on investing in this country. I am an economist and am no political expert. However, there seem to be three possible outcomes in Thai politics at this moment.

The first one is the path chosen by the People's Party to have an interim government and then dissolve parliament in four months with a referendum to amend the constitution. Under this path, it would be next May until the country has a stable government. A stable government is necessary for a stable economic policy.

The second is for the current government to immediately dissolve parliament and call a general election in 60 days. I'm certain here that someone will challenge the power of the caretaker prime minister to dissolve parliament. The challenger will ask for a temporary restraining order to prevent the dissolution. The government would then be in a frozen state. If the Constitutional Court finds a caretaker prime minister has no legal right, the challenger will most likely ask for the dissolution of the Pheu Thai Party. The country will then be in a shambles.

The last possible outcome is the worst. A petition claiming a violation of Section 144 has taken place by misusing the fiscal budget by diverting money to a central fund to finance the 10,000-baht cash handout scheme, has already been filed with the Office of the National Anti-Corruption Commission. If grounds are found, the case will be forwarded to the Constitutional Court which is required to make a judgement within 15 days. If the court finds a violation has taken place, all MPs who voted in favour of the 2025 budget would be disqualified, much like the case of the deputy House speaker.