Middle powers in the US-China trade war

As US tariffs begin to reshape global trade flows, many countries are worried that a tsunami of discounted Chinese goods, originally destined for America, will hit their shores.

- Wing Thye Woo

To keep them out, especially as recessionary pressures mount, some may be inclined to impose their own tariffs on Chinese imports. In that case, China would be cut off entirely from international trade, delivering an unexpected victory for US President Donald Trump, who would undoubtedly claim credit for this new Great Wall.

To avert this scenario, China must pursue short-term policies that align with its long-term goal of building a global governance architecture for a multipolar world. China harbours no illusions that it will be the twenty-first century's hegemon. India will become a superpower by mid-century. Europe might join their ranks, too, as Mr Trump's might-is-right worldview seems poised to accelerate and deepen European integration.

The current Sino-American standoff seemingly reflects a shared understanding that avoiding the Thucydides Trap — when tensions between an incumbent hegemon and a rising power lead to conflict — will require an agreement on respective spheres of influence. Both sides’ defensive efforts to expand their global reach have devolved into a crude form of imperialism. Mr Trump has designs on Canada, Greenland, Panama, and Gaza, while China's claims in the South China Sea have brought its maritime border to the doorstep of several Southeast Asian countries.