Govt hits rocky times

While Ms Paetongtarn’s legal battle unfolds, another case looms large: her father, former premier Thaksin Shinawatra’s prosecution under Section 112 of the Criminal Code, or the lese majeste law, for allegedly defaming the monarchy in a 2015 interview with a South Korean TV station.

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The ruling is scheduled for Aug 22.

Thaksin also faces a ruling in the high-profile “14th Floor” case, related to his extended stay in the premium ward on the 14th floor of the Police General Hospital in lieu of serving time in prison.

The case is based on the accusation his medical condition was exaggerated to justify his hospitalisation.

The Supreme Court is set to rule on Sept 9, requiring Thaksin to appear in person.

Experts say this month will be pivotal, with the three cases carrying direct consequences for the ruling Pheu Thai Party’s political influence and unity.

A rise of new nationalist-leaning conservative parties — fuelled by the Thai-Cambodian border conflict — could siphon MPs away from Pheu Thai, particularly in the Northeast, its main bastion.

Possible leadership changes

Stithorn Thananithichot, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, told the Bangkok Post it is likely that Ms Paetongtarn will not survive her legal case, adding she will be removed from office and a change in government leadership will follow.

He predicted her replacement would not necessarily come from Pheu Thai’s list of prime ministerial candidates — in this case, only Chaikasem Nitisiri remains — and that there were only two realistic alternatives.

The first is Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of Bhumjaithai, the third-largest party, who could be brought back into the government coalition to reshape the political landscape since the current government's parliamentary numbers make it difficult to govern.

The second is former prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who is one of two prime ministerial candidates on the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party's ticket.