GLOBAL, REGIONAL OUTLOOKS RISE IN OCTOBER

Global Market: We expect the global equity market will perform well in October due to the resumption of the US Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle (twice this year and once each in 2026 and 2027), the easing of trade war concerns, lower geopolitical risks and a global economic recovery.

- 

Fed rate cuts will pressure 10-year US bond yields further downward to a range of 3.7% to 3.8% in 2026, which will lower funding costs and drive higher valuations for global equity markets.

Meanwhile, we expect the US dollar to depreciate, which could support fund flows from safe havens to risky assets. We are currently overweight on the US, China and India markets for the fourth quarter of 2025 and into 2026.

Asean Markets: Asean equity markets are performing well in 2025, as the MSCI Asean Index is up 14% year-to-date, though we see great disparity among markets. The key outperformers are Vietnam, Singapore and Indonesia, which have returned 32%, 16% and 14% respectively.

The outperformance is driven by robust domestic demand, strong policy reforms, improved liquidity and notable capital market initiatives, particularly Singapore's regulatory boost and policy incentives.

The wide performance gap between regional leaders Vietnam and Singapore and markets facing greater trade vulnerability, such as Thailand and Malaysia, confirms that geopolitical and trade fragmentation risks are being priced unevenly across the region.