Dealing with shifting tariffs

SCB Asset Management (SCBAM), said the landscape is “better than expected”, noting Thailand’s tariff rate is near the global median.

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Competitors such as Vietnam face similar tariff pressures, meaning the competitive gap remains narrow, within roughly five percentage points, helping Thailand preserve its relative export positioning, he noted.

“US consumer demand and GDP growth supported by structural drivers such as artificial intelligence adoption and productivity gains are likely to have a greater influence on Thai exports than the tariff rate itself,” said Mr Varorith.

However, medium-term risks remain. While the new tariffs are being implemented under Section 122 of a US trade law, which allows temporary tariff adjustments for up to 150 days, there is potential for stricter actions under Section 232 (national security grounds) or Section 301 (unfair trade practices).

“Such measures could reintroduce volatility to global trade flows,” he said.

Despite these protectionist trends, Thailand’s private sector has implemented risk management and cost planning, helping to buffer the economy against external shocks. Still, long-term competitiveness will depend on structural transformation, said Mr Varorith.

The path forward lies in reinventing Thailand's core industries, shifting from traditional manufacturing to higher-value electronics, advanced technology components, and innovative agricultural products, he said.