The Risk Report

ON JULY 28, PRESIDENT DONALD Trump signaled growing impatience with Vladimir Putin by telling reporters in Scotland that Russia’s President must halt the fighting in Ukraine within “10 or 12 days” to avoid sanctions and secondary tariffs, tightening a 50-day deadline he had set earlier in the month. But this latest threat is unlikely to change Putin’s plans.

- By Ian Bremmer

From the outside, it’s hard to see why the war continues. Putin, the one person who could bring it to an end, can see that Russia has paid a steep price over the past three years and five months to gain just 20% of Ukraine’s land. By some estimates, Russia has suffered more than 1 million battlefield casualties, with a quarter-million killed. Since the invasion, roughly 1 million young Russians have fled the country to avoid conscription, find better job prospects, or both. Though scaling up Russia’s war machine briefly boosted its economy, the long-term loss of energy customers in Europe, a surge of inflation that has pushed interest rates to historic highs, and a deepening reluctance among Russian consumers to spend leaves Russia’s economic future on dangerous ground. How hard would it be, outsiders wonder, for Putin to cut a deal, stop the bleeding, declare victory, and consolidate Russia’s gains?